| Joelcool7 said: I've already given great reasons in other threads. I won't guarantee a 2012 release but I would say their is a 75% chance with a 24% chance of 2013 and a 1% chance 2014. I find it funny that people actually think Sony and Microsoft are completely influenced by one another and not by Nintendo. With Microsoft stating Kinect and motion controls are the future it would appear Nintendo has influenced Microsoft in a much larger manner then Sony. Also with Nintendo having won this generation both Sony and Microsoft are eager to not repeat last generation. I think based on all the rumors and all the facts. PS4 and X10 dev kits are already in developer hands. Both consoles will be unvieled by the end of E3 2012. X10 will launch winter 2012 with PS4 coming either alongside it or within months in 2013, at latest winter 2013. Both Microsoft and Sony will want to launch their consoles competitively with similar advantages. My other guess is PS4 will be the most powerful system next generation, but will likely cost about the same as X10 at retail. Unlike Nintendo and Microsoft who have to sell their expensive motion controllers , Sony can focus entirely on hardware power delivering a punch for an affordable price. Anyways the next generation seems in the bag to me, I will be very surprised if Microsoft doesn't launch next winter and honestly my hope for any Microsoft victory next generation will be lost if they don't beat PS4 to market by at least half a year! |
Personally, I'm going to try to avoid arguments over who will produce the most powerful hardware because I'm fairly certain that there won't be much of a meaningful difference between the systems. Here is what I would expect console manufacturers to sell systems for in 2012 and 2014 based on a (rough) multiple of processing power compared to current HD consoles:
2012
8x: $300
16x: $450
24x: $600
32x: $1,000+
2014
8x: $200
16x: $300
32x: $450+
With diminishing returns being what they are, and the probability of third party publishers focusing on true cross platform development, I don't see it as being likely that any of the manufacturers will be able to release a system that is meaningfully more powerful than the others; at least, not meaningful enough to compensate for the increased cost and/or later release date of the system.
