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BenVTrigger on 18 November 2011
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padib said:
BenVTrigger said:
archbrix said:
HappySqurriel said:
BenVTrigger said:

The thing is Halo 4 is such a massive game I think it would directly compete and hurt the Nextbox's sales.  Not to mention GTA 5 as well.  I just don't think any next-gen consoles are ready to compete with them.

I really don't think so ...

Most "big" games have a significant impact on the market for (maybe) 6 weeks or 8 weeks, a new console will likely sell (about) as well as it can for the first 6 weeks to 3 months regardless of competition, and these games may be released weeks or months before the console is released. So, suppose Halo 4 is released early October and the next XBox is released late November, how much of an impact will Halo 4 have on the next XBox in January?

You have to remember though, that Halo always has some decent legs for many months after its release.  Sure, the biggest numbers follow the pattern you mentioned, but let's say the next Xbox released in Nov 2012 as you said.  The launch and holiday numbers would look good for the new console due to the big fans early adopting.  But the price reduced 360 with Halo 4, GTA 5 and whatever COD releases holiday 2012 would continue to sell well through 2013, while the Xbox 1080 would likely slow down considerably, same way the PS3 did while PS2 continued so nicely.

If Microsoft waits until mid to late 2013 to launch Xbox 1080, said games will have slowed down a bit, giving the new console the complete spotlight for the 2013 holiday.  It's similar to the way Nintendo didn't release Wii U this year, instead letting Zelda take the spotlight now, and Wii U taking it next year.  And that's even with current Wii sales down and only one big game.  The 360 certainly won't have those dwindling sales holiday of 2012, therefore there's little need for the Xbox 1080 that early, IMO.

 Exactly.  I 100% agree with this post.  You guys on this site need to remember we are a VERY small representation of hardcore gamers in comparisson to the vast amount there are in the world.  Just because some of us are ready for next gen does not mean the rest of gamers are. 

I think a $100 360 with massive titles like Halo 4, GTA 5, the next COD, and probably the next Asassins Creed would absolutley destroy the next-box in sales if it launched in 2012. You have to remember to most people the current graphics are more than enough and if they keep getting these huge titles, with lots of XBox Live support what would be the point for the average gamer to upgrade?  The perfect time for them to launch would be like 3rd quarter 2013.  Let the hype and sales of the huge holiday 2012 games slow down a bit and slowly trickle out the amount of big games coming out for the 360 and then launch.

@the next COD. If it comes out in 2012, then the one after that will also come out in 2013, because the one before came out in 2011 (MW3), and before that 2010 (BOs). The trend at least appears to be yearly. The only possibility of a 2-year gap next time around would be in prep for next gen, but in that case the gap could happen in either 2012 OR 2013. For the argument let's count COD out.

@assassin's creed. Creed II, Brotherhood and revelations: 2009, 2010, 2011. Yearly. Let's also keep that out of the argument.

Your argument currently stands on Halo 4 and GTA 5. It's reasonable to work with. But the other 2 are excess points.

However, the alternative to launch them multiplat with benefits gives the cheapies time to enjoy their 360 or buy it cheaper than the new 1080, and allows the more eager buyers to go ahead and get them on the new system. My prediction is that all games that could conflict with next-gen consoles will get the cross-gen-multiplat experience. Whether 1st party, 2nd party or 3rd party, most will get the treatment. The last question that remains is, when does that moment start. And ultimately, if they want to make Halo 4 purely an xbox360 title and suck on the last juice of the 360, it would be probably the best choice to make (to end with a bang). But, as long as it doesn't expose saturation. The trend is still good, but they can't wait until the point where it starts going down. It's either end with a bang, or end early. The worst option is end later (when the trend is dying, like the Wii in 2011). Last question, if MS uses Halo 4 on 360, what will it use to propulse 1080? If they have nothing for that, maybe they should reserve Halo 4 for the 1080. In my POV, the more important platform to ensure success on atm is the 1080, then again I may be wrong. If the support is good on 360, maybe the consumer confidence in and of itself will gradually lead to adoption of the 1080 in due time, without a propeller.

What are you talking about?  Creed and the next COD are already confirmed for 360.  You are proving my point.  Let these games launch for the 360 and then the next ones in the series come out on the Nextbox.  And help drive the sales of the next system.  As it stands if it launched in 2012 it would be competing with these games available for a MUCH cheaper system.  Why not just not launch in 2013 and not have to compete with them and in fact have them ready to launch with the new console. 

Like I said your proving my point.  I'm not saying its impossible that the Nextbox comes out in 2012 just that its a better business choice to launch in 2013.  I'm not convinced yet Wii U is going to do much of anything so I don't think that would really impact sales.