Why Microsoft won't launch their new console in 2012

[archbrix]

padib said:

archbrix said:

You have to remember though, that Halo always has some decent legs for many months after its release.  Sure, the biggest numbers follow the pattern you mentioned, but let's say the next Xbox released in Nov 2012 as you said.  The launch and holiday numbers would look good for the new console due to the big fans early adopting.  But the price reduced 360 with Halo 4, GTA 5 and whatever COD releases holiday 2012 would continue to sell well through 2013, while the Xbox 1080 would likely slow down considerably, same way the PS3 did while PS2 continued so nicely.

If Microsoft waits until mid to late 2013 to launch Xbox 1080, said games will have slowed down a bit, giving the new console the complete spotlight for the 2013 holiday.  It's similar to the way Nintendo didn't release Wii U this year, instead letting Zelda take the spotlight now, and Wii U taking it next year.  And that's even with current Wii sales down and only one big game.  The 360 certainly won't have those dwindling sales holiday of 2012, therefore there's little need for the Xbox 1080 that early, IMO.

Archbrix, there is one glaring problem with this post. You mention 2 examples, but why not bring up the Wiilight Princess example? It didn't let Zelda take the spotlight on GC. Understood, you will say GC was a sinking ship and all, but it doesn't change the fact that the strategy worked for the Wii, and the Wii sales went upwards from there on. Why would the 1080 go down in comparison, what would be different that makes you so certain?

Also, if Halo 4 releases on the nextbox with better graphics and a new player interface or controller, and can entice early adoption, that's a total win. What's more important, securing the last 2 years of sales, or ensuring your upcoming product will thrive over 6 to 10 years?

Lol, "Wiilight Princess"... I like it!

Anyway, yes what you say worked, but frankly, the GC being dead in the water is a colossal difference in the equation.  Let's say Zelda TP only launched for the GC.  It would have done practically nothing for sales of the console.  Nintendo was anxious to get a new system in the race for many reasons; having Zelda release on GC was almost Nintendo just keeping their promise.

Now, let's say Halo 4 only launches on 360.  With the strong lineup in 2012 (GTA 5, Bioshock Infinite, new COD) and the 360's inevitable price drop, it'll mean lots of profit for Microsoft without their new console costing them anything yet.  To answer your @bolded, they're both important when the 360 will be doing so well in 2012, so it really is a balancing act for Microsoft.