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superchunk on 16 November 2011
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Biggest reason you're wrong is Sony PS4.

360 had a year head start and FAR higher US sales than PS3. Yet, without that years head start, it would be in 3rd place and no chance on catching the PS3. In fact, it would have ALWAYS been in third place and quite honestly not even close to PS3 had they launched in the same time frame with arguably the same game lineup. Additionally, you could probably argue they wouldn't have had the same game line up as 3rd parties might have pushed harder for PS3 development since 360 wouldn't have had a 5million or more larger user base.

MS won't want to start off on an equal footing with Sony. They might not care as much about Nintendo getting a head start, but they definitely don't want to be last or tied for last place out the gate.

Its far more in their interest to launch with Nintendo in 2012 and let PS4 be the last one out the gate sometime in 2013, than to be with Sony in 2013. (also, anyone who thinks PS4 isn't coming by 2013 is delusional)

RE: Halo4... who cares? A Halo remake (which is all it is really) is not selling new systems for either the 360 or the neXtBox. Its simply selling a lot of software units. Having Halo4 coming out on 360 and a same time frame launch of a neXtBox, with undoubtedly full backwards compatibility to the 360, will not affect the sales of a new console in any way. If anything it will help it as its just another big Xbox exclusive title someone will want to play on their new console or older one.

In reality, 2012 is a good release window so long as MS has already been planning for this and has some NEW (Halo4 is not new) game content to sell it. Something that makes you go out and pay that $300-$400 for the neXtBox and additional accessories that go along with it. As long as they have been planning for this and have that available, it will be just fine next to a WiiU that will probably be $50 to a max of $100 cheaper at launch as well as highly competitive to a year later PS4.

To me, Sony should be really fearing this news. They should not want to be last out the gate, regardless if the 1st year games on WiiU or neXtBox don't look too much different than their PS3 counterparts. Fact is, it'll be old news and people will be upgrading en masse.