I see things working out for the PS4 very nicely. Here are my reasons:
Price - There's no question that the main reason the PS3 saw such poor performance at the start was because of the price. Sony invested in the Blu-ray tech, as well as the Cell architecture. While this has and will continue to pay off for them in the future, it drove up the production costs of the PS3, causing it to launch at a full $200 more than the 360. This price difference, one that MS was able to keep an issue with future price cuts, is also one of the main reasons the 360 was able to find such a giant foothold in Americas and the UK. Next gen, however, this will not be an issue.
Sony has already announced they won't be spending near as much on the PS4 as they did with the PS3. Some believed this means that it won't be much more powerful than the Wii U, but that will not be the case. What this really means is that Sony is sticking with Blu-ray, which will be very cheap by the time the PS4 launches, as well as sticking with the Cell (or at least going with an evolution of its tech). This frees money up for a much better GPU and more RAM. I fully expect the PS4 to be a large jump in graphical ability, while still only selling for ~ $349-$399.
Support - Another reason the PS3 had so much trouble from the start, was the lack of quality support for the first 2 years. Something that didn't really change until 2008. Sony seems to have learned from this mistake, as they have been pumping out quality exclusives left and right, as well as getting a few quality 3rd party exclusives. The launch window line-up of the Vita proves this further. I can see there being no difference with the launch window line-up for the PS4. Sony will most likely have a GT and Uncharted waiting to be launched in the 1st year of the consoles life.
Brand Strength - The Playstation is a HUGE brand name. This gen, even with PS3's first troubling years, proves it. I highly doubt the Nintendo brand or the Xbox brand could have survived releasing a console that was $200 more than their nearest competition's console, while having poor support for the first 2 years, but Sony was able to pull through it. Next gen, without all the problems of this gen, we should see the true strength of the Playstation brand again.
Competition -
MS: Again, the main reason for the 360's rise this gen was not truly its strengths, but rather, the PS3's weaknesses at the start of the gen. In fact, the weaknesses were so large that it allowed the 360 to survive the RROD scare during its first years on the market. If the PS3 had been able to launch with good support, and a price point of $349-$399, there is no doubt in my mind the 360 would not have survived the RROD fiasco. I will give MS credit, though, as they were able to exploit those weaknesses with continuing price cuts and great 3rd party support, and have made the 360 a huge brand in Americas and the UK. Even though this will help them next gen, it won't help them enough. True, it will help it compete, maybe even win out in those 2 regions, but the gap in those same regions will be smaller. Mostly due to similar launch dates and pricing (difference of maybe $50) and similar support and power. Of course, the Playstation brand will win out in EMEAA and Japan.
Nintendo: To me, it seems that Nintendo is more playing catch up to this gen than looking to compete next gen. Yes, the graphics are supposed to be better than the PS3's, but by how much is yet to be seen. My guess is geometry and texture-wise, it will be about the same, while the main improvements will be AA and lighting/shadowing. This would mean that the main draw to the Wii U will not be for improved graphics, but to play it using the Wii U tablet controller. Already, this is going to turn off many of the owners of the PS3/360. They will not be willing to paying another ~$299-$349 to play slightly better looking games, just for the added bonus of the tablet controller. They will wait a year for the launch of the NeXbox and PS4, and spend only ~$50-$100 more, while getting greatly improved graphics.
So what about the more casual gamer? Well, by the time the Wii U is ready to launch, I fully expect Sony and MS (250GB SKU) to drop the price of their systems to $199 to compete with the Wii U. This will cause a nice bump for both consoles, as well as make potential buyers question spending ~$100-$150 more to only get slighty improved graphics. This, again, makes the tablet the main draw. And while tablets have become quite popular, especially the iPad, the main appeal of those is you can take and use them ANYWHERE. Not so with the Wii U controller, as it is more like a touch display and requires the console to operate fully. Then you have the fact that while Nintendo is trying to get more than one controller to work per console, it is not set in stone they will be able to pull it off. If that is the case, then that will make multiplayer less appealing, something that helped make the Wii popular. And even if they get 2 working (which seems it will be the max) it still puts a damper on multiplayer. No one wants to play with the old Wii-motes when 2 others get to play on the new tablet controller and experience the game fully.
