Just to throw a thought into this ring:
Look at Wii sales for the start of '07. They slowed a lot, then exploded after March was over. Why?
Nintendo's fiscal prediction - they will dry up supply of the Wii (esp. during March), to hit their predicted sales figures spot on - upp them for the next financial year - then release a lot more units starting April '08.
^
And that is probably the most important factor to consider right now, making any predictions based upon current (mid Jan - Mar) sales somewhat incomplete from the standpoint that they would be using skewed numbers.
That was the only conclusion I came up with when last week's sales figures came in. I expected a significant drop off, but not that much. It looks as though the number of Wii's sold this month will be well under the current production rate of 1.8m. That is unless this week's total is in the range of 600k or more and the final week of January is around 400k. But a drop off would be consistent with last year.
What isn't too clear is how Nintendo can make a projection of max sustainable sales through 2008 for the purposes of production if they continue to restrict distribution at current production rates. That is unless they aren't trying to predict max sales for the purpose of saturating the market, but rather sustainable sales at reliable/predictable rates (to move 100% inventory).
The most likely explanation is that they've already planned two conservative, slight increases in monthly production to 2.0m and 2.2m starting in March and later in June or July. That is pending the hit of their sales estimates through Jan-Feb and subsequent fiscal projection for Mar 08 - Mar 09.
That would yield annual production of about 25m (44m total by year end 2008), not factoring in for the exact date when production increases. Based on Mar-2.0m and Jun-2.2m.
There's always the possibility Nintendo will go uncharacteristically aggressive in their projections and production rates, but Nintendo is a very conservative company.
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