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It's worse than it looks thanks...

The original article in AllThingsD actually says:

"Of the current PlayStation Portable owners, 60 percent have said they will upgrade in the next 18 months, and of the console owners, 63 percent said they would buy one."

So that's 60% of PSP owners to upgrade within the first 18 months

and 63% of PS3 owners said they would buy one (not necessarily within the first 18 months)

So that'll be 42m sales in the first 18 months.