Rath on 30 October 2011
In my opinion it won't happen. (which isn't an option in the poll)
Things are bad now but there is a genuine effort - especially in Europe (which is closest to the brink) - to pull back from the edge. I think there will be turmoil with controlled selective defaults but not a complete collapse.
Of course I'm not an economist - but given the track record of economists I think I have about the same chance of being right =P
