I am still confident that MS will cut price, I just have a feeling they are waiting until November to tie it in with their 10th anniversary of Halo or Black Friday or something. I imagine they are ramping up supply right now to ensure they have plenty come the holidays and whenever they make their moves. They just can't be serious about being #1 this year without some sort of super big news/price cut/bundling/major marketing push.
I believe in the past once they started pushing the larger HDD's in limited editions and standalone's, it wasn't much longer until the SKU's were updated to all have larger HDD's. All the constant gift card deals and whatnot make me think retailers are clearing out old stock and banking up on new models/SKU's/etc for the holidays. Guess we will have to wait and see!