I just can't see MS pulling it off. For them to even make up serious ground, they are going to have to do much more than a $50 cut to the 250GB model (which, besides maybe a $25 cut to Kinect, is all I think they will end up doing). They would have to have a $50 cut to both 360s. Kinect just isn't going to have the same impact as last year. It's not new, not as hyped, and there aren't as many games launching for it as last holiday to make people want it. The one game that may have helped a bit, Star Wars, was delayed to next year because the game wasn't good enough to launch, yet. If they want Kinect to have a similar (but still smaller) impact as last year, it will need another HUGE ad campaign and a cut of at least $75.
Then you have to look at sales in specific regions. Sure MS is going to sell more in Americas, but PS3 is no slouch there, either. It will definitely get a nice boost this holidays from the price cut and Uncharted 3. Also, any gap that MS gains in Americas will be mostly negated by Japan, where the 360 is basically dead and the PS3 is going to have huge numbers from the custom bundles it has coming out, namely for FF13-2. In EMEAA, UK is going to help the 360, but as a whole, PS3 is going to claim the region.
I think MS will probably close the gap by some, but they are definitely not going to be ahead.
