Too many wild cards at this point for me to predict at the moment. But if i were a betting man, i'd say very close but PS3 will edge them out for 2011 overall just because of the lead they have at the moment.
It's up in the air though, we don't know if Kinect is a one hit wonder or a new wave to get bigger every year. Number 2 PS3 is cheaper this year with what looks like a good ad campaign coming up. Number 3, maybe the UC3 bundle won't push hardware like people expect, the game will sell regardless, but will hardware boost from it? With no uber limited edition console like Gears, hard to say.
Number 4, last year was the Move's debut with Walmart commercials and Sony really pushing it. But since then has Move lost it's luster? Can Sony count on a percentage of casual gamers picking up a PS3 this year? And for me, the biggest wild card is Japan. That could be the tipping scale, because X360 is non existent there and PS3 has a bundle in Nov with Ni No, and an even better one with FF XIII-2 so Japan might have a week or two during the holidays where Sony can push some hardware.
