I don't think so. MS will slightly lose 2011 by less than a million.
2012 will be a huge year for MS, because they will cut the price by quite a margin. Halo 4, Star Wars and Fable won't hurt sales either. The TV offerings will start to kick in next year and have an effect on console sales.
I think MS might cut the price so significant, because they prepare a new console launch in 2013.
Imagine not having GamePass on your console...