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@Reasonable,

Interesting analysis, but right now the current numbers tell me neither the 360 or the PS3 has a chance of getting close to PS2 level sales IMHO. The reason is what's different about the consoles this time vs when PS2 dominated.
Right now, current numbers of ps3 sales in January 2008 doesn`t differs much from ps2 numbers of January 2001. That may changes in future, for now it`s how it is.
Why? Neither is selling to to the broad demographic required and neither has nearly deep enough a library in all genres.
THAt is what going to change in 2008, I BELIEVE.
This is one reason why Wii, which is perfectly positioned for the broader, non-hardcore demographic - if I can use that term - is doing so well.
You must be kidding. The main reason, why wii is selling, because it actually has from LAUNCH games, which show system capabilities - controls. How much do you think would PS3 sell, if it would have on LAUNCH games like Uncharted, Ratchet, FFXIII, GT5, KZ2, MGS4, GTA4 and etc. - games which SHOW what really ps3 capable of?
an alternative to expensive PCs.
yeah, that is usually my point. Guess what will happen, when by the end of 2008, average pc will outperform x360. Who will need x360 then? This is rethorical question, don`t anwer, i don`t need flamebait here.
PS3 and Sony have better chance but brand won't do it alone.
Brand.. indeed, say this to Japanese. =)) Even in Europe PS3 was doing better, because of brand, not because it had amazing lineup in 2007. Actually for biggest part of the year it didn`t.
Wii right now is selling so sweet
PS3 won`t be 3rd for whole generation. I could even bet on that.
Personally I think Sony thought it would win casual on brand alone and people trading up from PS2s
There are still over 50 mln. ps2 users who haven`t jumped from ps2 to wii, x360 and ps3. Asuming that ALL those ps3/wii/x360 owners were users of ps2. That would be insane to assume. =))
So right now people are buying
PS3 didn`t stop selling either. How good/bad it will do we will see later this year.
To get to PS2 levels the PS3 needs to start competing with Wii and become the hardcore choice outside of US. Could it do it? Possibly, but not because of how the PS2 sold nor any similarities between PS3 and PS2 sales in their early life.
YET, i am only comparing 2008 PS3 sales to 2001 PS2 sales, to SEE how good PS3 will do in comparison with PS2. That`s all.

Thank you, that was nice post of you. =)

@HappySqurriel,
so i should compare 2008 PS3 sales numbers with PS2 2002 sales numbers, just because PS2 wasn`t supply costrained? For WHAT POINT?

why you ignore, that 2001 is the year when games like MGS2, GTA3, FFX, DMC, GT3 were released, NOT 2002?
ONE of the point of this thread is to SEE what EFFECT will do games like  MGS4, GTA4, FFXIII, DMC4, GT5 to PS3 compared to MGS2, GTA3, FFX, DMC, GT3 to PS2.



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far