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The people I play online with are ex-soldiers, military nuts, and cops. They prefer the "realism" of Call of Duty to the sci-fi world of Halo. It's easier to relate to. Once Call of Duty quit being about World War 2 and finally gave them a taste of "modern warfare", there was no turning back. Not many of them even bothered with World at War.

Microsoft will have to build a new IP based on modern warfare and do it better than the current fix, Call of Duty and convince/convert those fans. It's impossible. They will just have to settle for being king of the sci-fi FPS.