Interesting analysis, but right now the current numbers tell me neither the 360 or the PS3 has a chance of getting close to PS2 level sales IMHO. The reason is what's different about the consoles this time vs when PS2 dominated.
Why? Neither is selling to to the broad demographic required and neither has nearly deep enough a library in all genres.
This is one reason why Wii, which is perfectly positioned for the broader, non-hardcore demographic - if I can use that term - is doing so well.
I see MS as having the biggiest issues with getting out from under the glass ceiling they've placed over themselves since the original Xbox by appealing tightly to the hardcore FPS online gamer as an alternative to expensive PCs. 360 will sell very well to this demographic and have an good attach rate - but nonetheless I believe it represents a glass ceiling.
PS3 and Sony have better chance but brand won't do it alone. They must seriously strenghten their catalogue across broad genres in line with how PS2 took off. Right now PS3 is more of an alternative to 360 for most people rather than representing a casual choice. Price is an issue of course, as has been the linking of the PS3 to the media format war.
Wii right now is selling so sweet either Nintendo would have to make a mess of it or MS and Sony would seriously have to sort themselves out to compete with it. If they chose not to compete with it then it will sew up the casual market IMO and both Sony and MS will have handed this gen overall winner to Nintendo on a silver platter.
Personally I think Sony thought it would win casual on brand alone and people trading up from PS2s and decided to focus on winning over more hardcore with a high spec machine in line with what they new MS was working on - but so far they've been wrong on the casual front and by delaying launch they let MS have a whole year to go after US & UK hardcore gamers, who are not normally patient or loyal.
So right now people are buying Wii's for casual, family gaming and a lot of people (particularly in US) are buying 360's for hardcore.
To get to PS2 levels the PS3 needs to start competing with Wii and become the hardcore choice outside of US. Could it do it? Possibly, but not because of how the PS2 sold nor any similarities between PS3 and PS2 sales in their early life.
Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...
