While the PS3 will no doubt sell better this year than last year, it won't come close to the PS2 in 2001. Why?
1. Much higher price: Many people do not believe that it is worth the extra money.
2. Games have less impact: GTA and DMC are multiplatform, with more of those sales probably going to 360 due to the much larger American userbase. Final Fantasy will not come out this year, sales of GT and MGS have declined in the last few releases.
3. The PS3 has much stronger competitors than the PS2 did. Wii is currently soundly crushing the PS3 and 360. 360 is king of America, and while PS3 is starting to close the gap in Europe, it will still be awhile until it is enough to make up for poor American and Japanese sales.
4. Such a turnaround is unprecedented: Going back in the last 20 years, a console this far behind has never rebounded and made it to first.
8-bit: Sega Master System never stood a chance
16-Bit: The SNES and Genesis/Mega Drive were close for most of their lifespan, so while SNES took awhile to beat Genesis/Mega Drive, it was nowhere near as far behind as the PS3
32/64-bit: The Saturn was a failure, PS1 dominated the whole era, N64 had nowhere near the sucess.
Last Gen: PS2 was always dominant, with Dreamcast, Xbox, and Gamecube being just a footnote in video game history.
Why should this generation be any different?