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I'd like to believe that the Vita's superior tech, online, media features etc will ultimately set it apart from the 3DS in the long run. I don't know where the smart phone / android type market exactly stands in Japan but I still don't see 3DS having much longevity in the future against all that.

I just really struggle with the 3DS in general though, feels to me like the only leg it has to stand on is it's games and I'm not totally convinced about them yet either.