I dunno its very hard to tell because Sony could make some drastic moves next year to compete with 3DS and completely change the playing field. I mean who's to say if Vita sales are lack luster that Sony won't pull a PS3 and 3DS and cut hardware prices down to 199.99$ or even God forbid 169.99$. Then who's to say Sony won't pull a rabbit out of its hat and announce an exclusive Final Fantasy or pay off Capcom to bring an MH game to Vita.
However as it currently stands Nintendo has the key titles that make Sony's platforms successful. Nintendo has Metal Gear Solid and Monster Hunter. Throw in Tekken and you've got three franchises that are usually Sony exclusive now making their way not multiplatform but exclusively to 3DS. Add to that the fact that 3DS will cost almost 100$ cheaper then Vita, the fact that Vita's battery life is actually no better then 3DS. Add in the fact that Nintendo is likely working hard to get Square-Enix's support with DQ and likely a future FF game and you've got a recipe for success in Japan. Of course throw in a true Pokemon title and two years down the road a New Super Mario Bros 3DS and Nintendo will have Japan in the bag, unless Sony does something drastic!
However I believe that both Vita and 3DS will sell fewer units in Japan then their predecessors. In fact the fight might be a lot closer in scale with 3DS winning not by a mile but a foot!
-JC7
"In God We Trust - In Games We Play " - Joel Reimer
