People seem to be ignoring the fact that its probably not even Microsoft's choice whether Nex-Box comes to Japan or not. Its the retailers choice they are the ones that stock and sell X-Box products. As I just said retailers across Japan dropped the 360 this year, in fact barely any retailers still carry Microsoft products. The few retailers that still carry MS products have very little shelf space if any at all.
Microsoft has been virtually kicked out of Japan. Yah 1.5-million is a number of units that MS can't afford to give up, however I don't think they have any say in the matter. Japanese retailers have spoken and 360 in Japan is now all but dead, many retailers liquidated their stocks at very low prices it was all over the news.
So if Japanese retailers won't carry Microsoft products, how can Microsoft launch Nex-Box in Japan? What can they do to convince Japanese retailers to give Nex-Box shelf space when they just lost all the shelf space 360 had? None of the major Japanese retailers are likely to stock the Nex-Box.
I think if Microsoft is going to survive and launch Nex-Box in Japan they will need to have an exclusive deal with one of the retailers. Offer that retailer the ability to sell Microsoft products exclusively and that no other Japanese retailers will be carrying the product. This would mean that the 1.5 million Microsoft fans will all have to buy their games and consoles from that single retailer. This would mean increased profits for that retailer and maybe lead them to give Microsoft some good shelf space.
But even if MS signed a deal and gave a single Japanese retailer exclusive rights to selling Nex-Box. Even then PS4/WiiU/3DS/Vita would all still out sell Nex-Box even at this retailer. Meaning even with such a move they still likely wouldn't get the same shelf space as Sony or Nintendo.
However I think if MS tries to get all the major retailers in Japan to carry Nex-Box sales will be too low for all of them to continue carrying it. The retailers will loose money and drop Nex-Box the same way they dropped 360. 1.5 million sales might be good for Microsoft but the retailers don't see those sales figures as appealing.
Microsoft will have to convince a retailer to carry Nex-Box. If they do that exclusive deal I mentioned they might just be able to pull off another generation in Japan. If they try another big launch like 360 and try getting it in all the major retailers they will just flop again and this time they will never get into another Japanese retailer again. Microsoft's gotta monopolize sales of the Nex-Box to a single retailer thus giving the retailer profits that are acceptable while keeping Microsoft's foot in Japan.
Heck if Nex-Box is exclusive to that single retailer and sales do exceed 1.5-million. Then with the fourth X-Box Microsoft might be able to get a second major retailer carrying Microsoft products. Slowly advancing each generation, but to try and take on Sony and Nintendo in all of Japan's major retailers at once will spread the profits too thin and kill any chance of retailers carrying Microsoft products in the future!
-JC7
"In God We Trust - In Games We Play " - Joel Reimer







