Will the launch of PSV affect PS3 sales in Japan?

[MARCUSDJACKSON]

Michael-5 said:

MARCUSDJACKSON said:

Michael-5 said:

 

You expect PS3 to outsell Wii? 360 too I assume. WOW, I can't say I share your belief. its really not that big of a stretch. i know there alot of factors involved, but its highly likely. i'm not to sure on 360 considering i don't think MS will want to keep it around after the launch of circle 66, but 80 to 105m is wht i see for 360. all i truly know is that this is the bench mark gen cause there has never been a gen where the 2nd and 3rd place consoles sold more then 50m units and were both this close to first place so i wouldn't count it out. all i can say is continue to watch my sig as we lead up to 2016 and we'll find out how this ends cause i'm never truley sure even when i'm right.

i got one for ya just to show you how off the wall predictions come true. the newly announced Dead or Alive5 going multiplatform was a prediction i made last yr. there was no signs of this happenning, and not one announcement or mention or rumur about it, happening. there ya go. a long time 360 exclusive (eventhough it was on dream cast and ps2)and with me having no reason to think otherwise went multiplatform and i made the prediction last yr.

Most early predictions went bad. People thought PS3 would just crash before 10M, and that didn't happn. People thought PS3 would overtake the 360 in 2006, 2007, especially 2008, 2009, especially 2010, and again in this year, but that didn't happen. People also thought Wii could outsell PS2 (I think it will come close), and this is looking unlikely too. well don't forget wht Sony will do with PS3. if it doesn't happen in 2016 it will happen eventualy. i changed my prediction of PS3 beating 360 this yr only because in the end i didn't see it happening. i was the first to post predictions for fiscal 2011 and many thought i was crazy. even playstation owners question'd the prediction! ninty105m, ps3 60m 360 58m. i didn't have a reason to change  my predictions until around march and PS3 was still outselling 360 so why change the prediction when the console is selling?

well i didn't see it happening so i changed.

Out of curiousity, what is your 360 lifetime prediction? Do you have one for DS and PSP?  i've never done handheld prediction cause there sells are either to high or low for me to touch. next yr DS will likely do 10m, and be on the market for another 3 yrs so in that time i'd say another 15-25m for the ds in 3 yrs if ninty continue to support it for that length of time. psp is alittle harder considering its sells trends. japan will be its leader and in 3 yrs likely 30m based on continued support from sony and japan mostly unless support falls off whci i do beleive is in the cards thenits likely to sell about 12-18m over the next 3 yrs.

360 will reach 70m nextyr and i think 360 sell may or may not peak in north america, but in emea's sells will fall off but not by much. so in 3yrs if 360 is still on the market i'll say 27m. 'ill add them up in asect

Mine are:

95M for PS3 and 360. PS3 sales follow a trend pattern almost identical to PSP's (allign their launches and take a look, just remember PSP released in March and PS3 in November), and I think they will have the same lifetime sales. I think 360 will hold leading sales until 2013, and then both consoles will come out about on par. However I stink PS3 will do a bit better then PSP because it's main market is EMEAA and not Japan. wow looks liek we truly have a diferent perspective. i like your thinking and it works, but i can't compare PS3 and PSP sells cause they've sold nothing alike, but i like how you've done it.

85M for the PSP. It's at 70M now, and the PSV is coming this fall in Japan. This will kill PSP sales. It did 10 million last year, I expect 7-8 million this year, and 4 next year. yea 7-8 is also wht i see for PSP sells. 

170M for the DS. It did 20 million last year, but I only expect it to just break 10 million this year. GBA did 17 million more after the DS released. I think the DS has anohter 22 Million left in it. very logical

135M for Wii. It's held better then PS2 sales annually all it's life. This is the first year it might not top PS2's numbers with an alligned launch. next year it only needs 13 M to keep up with PS2, and I don't think that will happen. I think Wii will hold 80% of PS2 sales the next couple years, and it will drop pretty sharply with the launch of Wii U. Wii just doesn't have as much software as PS2. wii is a monster but life time 135 i don't see. its almost likely to do that in 3yr's but i won't hold my breath lol.

ds in 3 yr's 183m

360 in 3yrs 90m or so.

psp in 3 yrs  86m

PS3 is the hardest one: 101m in 3 yrs main holdings emeaa and japan

So you think PS3 will outsell the 360 by an average of 35% over the next three years? I really doubt that. Sony said they won't loose profit to win second place, and I honestly feel MS is toying with PS3. I mean they are selling the 360 for $50 more then the PS3 now, and it's a cheaper system to make. if you say so. MS may have us all fool'd but that doesn't change wht i see. the thing is many more people are waiting for PS3 to cost less, and the arcade model gave MS away. theres not much leverage MS has at this point, but like i've said in every doom thread made in the past yr. don't underestimate the big3. i may have my predictions but if the big3 think like i think then those predictions change. if they do wht i think they should do then those prediction change and if they don't i either keep them the same or lower them. my predictions are based on how stupid the big3 are rather then wht i think they'll do.

its my beleif that you can market a product for ever if you know how to do it. PS2 still manages to sell with no marketing in north america(well you can tell me about canada, and i have no idea about mexico). whether thats signifigant or not is anybodies guess but wht MS hiding changes nothing. 

i former member(he's permabanned) argued with me telling me i should care about my predictions but the fact of the matter is they change so often i don't have time to care. as you can see theres nothing but vita in my sig and i only care how vits preforms. strangely enough i like how 3DS is doing and those who don't are over reacting.

You agree with me, it's hard to predict future sales this year. I'm just skeptical of PS3 toping 360 anytime soon. If PS3 tops 360, it will be after both systems are replaced, and at that point, does it matter? X-Box passed GCN late into last gen, but no one really cares anymore. yea even if PS3 passes 360 tomorrow it would be a very mute point meanning in this case noone would care but many would bragg and it would be 2007 all over again. PS3 first 2 yrs on the market(do the math)have all been better then MS's so in its on time period not the 360's 6 yrs but the PS3's 5 yrs PS3 has sold better then 360 in its 5 yrs hins PS3 has sold better then 360 regardless, but its not something i like getting into.

in 360's 6 yrs PS3 has sold better but in PS3's 5 y'rs 360 sold better. the difference is PS3's 5 yrs is the only one that counts so Sony is still 3m units behind the 360 and 360 is the winner in the present not the time fram in a sells comparison for 5 yr total for the rival platforms.

in one thread last yr somebody was saying ps3 had already outsold 360 because of replacement model's. now that would be great ammo for another sonyfan to go on but not me. i quoted that poster and told him 360 would likely still be ahead because of replaced PS3's. i can't post about a likely situation considering those who didn't send there 360's in to get fix'd (RROD cost MS $2b i think)are stupid lol so that doesn't change the fact that (even though afew consoles are replacement units) those consoles are still sold the reason they sold means nothing cauuse they still count as sells.

i hope i'm not confusing you. let me know if i am an tell me wht part and i'll go back and explain it 

As for your dead or alive prediction, I predicted FFXIII going multiplatform before it went official, and I still believe FFVXIII will go multiplatform. I'm right about games sometimes. I also said GT5 and Last Guardian will be delayed substantially (before last years march release and this years august relase respectivly) and they have. GT5 and last Guardian were obvious. a blind man could have seen that.

If you align Wii and PS2 sales, they follow idential patterns (early peaks, slow declines, and 1 last peak with a price cut). However Wii has topped PS2 by 2-4 million every year. This is the first year I think they will level out, or PS2 will inch ahead. PS3 and PSP have also had identical sales patterns. Late peaks, with a sudden jump in sales after 3 years, and then a gradual drop. well wii will continue to fall hard and get off pase. its last stronge hold will be the u.s. but that will fall aswell and 360 will pass wii in us sells. Wii is a dead horse living and Nintendo needs to finish killing it like Sony did PS2. 

yea i said it. Sony killed PS2 early because they didn't want MS to get an early lead and they didn't want to be 2 yrs late to the party. so just like 360 PS3 wasn't ready either, but Wii was.

Also, it's kind of funny. You think 360 sales will drop in EMEAA, I think PS3 sales will drop in Americas and Japan. I think in 2013 PS3 sales will drop drastically in Japan to 5k weekly, and in Americas, after 360's next price cut, I doubt PS3 sales will ever be more then half of 360's. I think 360 will have legs in Americas, but PS3 will have legs in EMEAA. hey thats likely. love the way you think, but theres nothing holding 360 in 2013 other then the 2012 release of halo. granted Sony has nothing that big, but i also think halo has gotten all it can out of 360, so i see 2012 as a floater yr. consoles will sell wht ever regardless of wht comes out. no software will impact tha sells of either console. this gen ends this yr but Sony nore MS are ready for it to end.

your starting to make me think Ninty will take next gen to. 

This is why I don't think the PS3 will overtake 360 anytime soon. 360 will always be strong in Americas, and PS3 will always be strong in EMEAA, and in Japan for a bit. When PS3 dies in Japan and Americas, 360 will die in EMEAA. So both consoles annual sales will drop respectivly with each other. eitherway PS3 will continue to push into more markets and out sell 360 before 2016 and if sony is stronger next gen that will pay off. sonys biggest problem this gen was not having a global launch. or launch dates closer together. they'd be even closer if not ahead of 360 right now if they had. 

once again. PS3's lifttime on the market is better then the 360 at the same time period so its safer to say 360 follows PSP's pattern.

Also next year, I think 360 will come down in price, and Halo 4 will attract new gamers. PS3 might outsell 360 this year, but I doubt it can do it for next (just compare the software, there is almost nothing big for PS3 so far). theres enough softwar for PS3 considering vita cross platform support which will mainly plat a part in japan. PS3 will do wht it has done for so many yrs now and thats outsell the comp early on and hold an edge until the end of the yr or even sell on par with 360 during the holiday season.

i can do a trend on this because its current and in relation to rock star. Agent will do just as good as LA. Nore, and red dead redemption with the only difference being Agent will push PS3 harware sells. Sony has been sneaky all gen and i expect nothing less from them next yr.

both MS and Sony have been playing under the radar all gen(mainly because of the cost to manufacture)

the big ip's in the dark for sony have yet to see the light of day and the biggest one is Agent from Rock star. this one i can follow a sells trend on just from rockstars software sells this gen.

don't count out move or kinect either. move is only 2m units behind kinect in ww sells which means nothing when you think about it but the sftware should hit hard for both devices in 2012 which could move sells for the 2 consoles in question

the only question that remains is wht kind of dissruption will wiiu have when it's released?  if wiiu has any affect on 360 or ps3 then we never had this conversation cause i'll forget it ever happen'd