How much/when will Microsoft drop the price of the 360?

[misterd]

Price cut will be for the launch of GTA4 (if not sooner), as that game, more than any other, has the possibility of boosting PS3 sales. The more bites that the 360 can take of that apple, the worse it will be for Sony. That's why they paid for the exclusive content.

However, the Sony people are likely to be loyal - many might never have owned non-Sony systems, and they are likely to look beyond GTA4 to MGS4, FF13 and other, traditional PS titles. However, $400 is still a lot more than most are willing to spend on a VG console so there's a limit on the number of people who will be able to jump to the PS3 just now (likely the main reason 360 hardware stalled most of 2007, too). Thus MS has to sweeten the deal as much as possible to get those Sony gamers to jump now, and not wait for another Sony price cut or two. I expect a minimum $50 price cut from MS, but that was met with a collective yawn last year. Heading into their 3rd year, it is hard to imagine them still being within $100 of launch prices (has that EVER been the case for any console?). Really they are well behind the price cut curve, and I expect that I am not the only gamer anxious for them to finally get serious with their price reduction.

360 Arcade: Drop fro $279 to $199. Also expect them to mix up the game assortment, maybe even toss in a packaged game. This puts the 360 into the "sweet spot" for mass consumption. (Note: I think it is possible that the Arcade will be cut all together, but I can't predict that without knowing how it sold for them last XMas).

360 Premium: As the "staple" console it needs the biggest splash, just like last time. I think $250 is the best move. They may only go to $270-$280 in order to avoid cannibalizing Arcade sales, but if they cut the Arcade out completely, they almost have hit $250 in order to avoid the unhelpful PS3-ish debate over whether a price cut really took place at all.

360 Elite: Money is less of an issue to those buying the elite package, but it is also the most direct competition for the PS3. Keeping a high ceiling will make the PS3 look more attractive, but it might also keep Sony from too agressive a response. However, with the Premium now also coming with HDMI ports, basically you're paying for a cable, 100G and a black finish. I think it makes sense to cut it to $350.