You're right. It may get smaller, but it'll never die.
COD is like Madden, but ten times bigger. Fans buy it every year looking for the same thing. You'll never hear a Madden fan saying "hey, they didn't change the gameplay at all". All they care about is updated rosters, better graphics, etc. Just like COD fans, they want a few new perks, new weapons, better graphics, etc.
It could die, sure. Look at NBA Live. That dies because a superior competitor came along in NBA 2K. Now the only way COD is going to die down is if a superior FPS comes along and releases yearly. That FPS is not Battlefield.
In order for a FPS to outdo COD, that FPS would need to have local multiplayer, pick-up-and-play accessibility, have yearly releases, and probably some more things I can't think of.
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