Dark Horses?

[Dodece]

@smroadkill15

Rage may well be the most deserving, but it is probably the least likely. It isn't altogether hopeless, but it is nothing close to a fair fight. They are going into a market that will be both over saturated, and brimming with exceedingly high caliber games to contend with. It is hard to see how this title will garner a meaningful share.

The market is fundamentally finite. There is only so much room for any game in a given genre. For Rage to find real successes in the next few months it will need to pull sales from competitors. Which is a tall order when the competitors are the highest selling franchises in gaming. This title may well be on every enthusiasts list. The real problem is it will be the fourth or fifth title on those lists. Even then most consumers are not going to be narrow minded in their purchasing patterns.

While shooters are popular nobody wants to buy five shooters in short order. Especially since this is a genre that is well known for having superior replay value. Meaning one title will do you for quite some time, and beyond that even it is hard to find consumers that only buy games for one genre. Most seem to appreciate some variability in what they play. They do not want to play just shooters.

So the question isn't why this game deserves to do well. The question is how can it deprive the big games of their sales. This is not a game this is going to fulfill anything like a unattended to need. It is doing the exact same thing as everyone else is doing. That will make it hard to stand out as a real alternative. Do you have any idea as to how it can manage this over the next few months.

I have little doubt this game will perform well next year in the absence of this competition. However the first few months for this title are going to be insanely brutal. I am just not seeing the room at the table.