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I think the race will be very close either way, but 3DS should edge out the Vita, provided Nintendo keeps the price lower than it, and it follows through on some of the strong type of games that helped sell the DS, like a (true) 2D Mario game. Focusing on obscure niche titles like Luigi's Mansion 2 and Kid Icarus is not going to do much.

Plus, you've got the head start of the 3DS that is growing larger by the day, moreso now that it has recieved a drastic price cut. Nintendo definitly has their work cut out for them this gen though in terms of topping their competition, probably more than they ever had in their long reign of handheld dominance.