CGI-Quality said:
There are. There's nothing suggesting that it can't/won't right now (given that it's currently ahead of the last Gran Turismo that cleared 10 million). |
I wouldnt say there's NOTHING to say it can clear 10 million- im not saying that it cant be done - Im saying it'll be very hard ! You're right that GT5 edged out last Gen sales of GT in its first weeks, but looking at GT5 prologue sales it was 'similar' in first weeks - it had strong sales as well - but dropped more dramatically then past generations GT's sales in the coming months.. ( Actually GT5 PROLOGUE SOLD BETTER then GT 5 considering in 2007 the userbase of PS3 was smaller - which brings up my part of my point ).... In Gt5 the hardcore fans of the game (again) showed up.. but one thing has changed DRAMATICALLY since last generation - and that IS THE SIZE OF THIS GENERATIONS USERBASE..Left over sales are now trending on whats left in casual gamers...Looking at past GT's that performed well ( which were on PS2 ) - Games on the PS2 were some of the only games on ANY console that were able to DOUBLE their sales AFTER THE 10 week mark ! And Gt4 is no exception. Why ? The PS2 was #1 - IT HAD AN ENORMOUS USERBASE ( 100+ million at the time of GT4's launch -- Larger then the Wii now, but to be fair its harder now to have a HUGE userbase- because M$ has established itself this generation and controls North America and ( between only the PS3 and Xbox 360 ) has 40+% market share in Europe ) ...So, looking back GT4 sold alittle over 5 million ( in its first 10 weeks - back in its 2005 release date) ... BUT IT DID IT ON A CONSOLE THAT ALREADY HAD A USERBASE of NEAR 100 MILLION ( PS2's lifetime is around 150 million )... SO when looking at sales trends everyone needs to consider the PS2 HAD DOUBLE THE CONSOLES in the WORLD that the PS3 had when Gran turismo 4 launched.... If you think about it logically, selling 10 million of ANY game on a console that has 100 million users, is less a feat then it is now for the PS3 ( or Xbox 360 ) to do the same because they have HALF the userbase of the PS2 .. ( Example.. GT 4 selling 10.6 million lifetime is only about 8% of the PS2 total sales.. Converse to that: COD selling 10.4 million on the PS3 is an astounding 20% of thats console userbase ! ) It seems hardcore fans buy mostly during the first weeks - so trends are similar the first 10 weeks on many consoles & popular games.. BUT... After that sales are influenced by the number of casual buyers ( moms & dads buying Christmas gifts ) .... So, yeah, G4 and GT5 ( and many GT's ) appear to trend the same the first 10 weeks.. the hardcore fans of those games are still buying those games in the initial 10 weeks.. but after that the userbase of the PS3 has ONLY HALF of what the PS2.. Yet Loyal fans are expecting lifetime sales to be the same or better ? It wont happen..
Looking at current ( not past ) GT sales trend.. GT 5 sold 5.7 million in its first 10 weeks ( its release was Nov 2010 ).. its 10 months later and GT5 is at 6.4 million.. so its sold around 700 thousand copies in 10 months.. ( Above I posted GT 4 selling 10.6 million was only 8% of PS2's userbase.. thus we assume only a certain percent of users like that genre.. which bring up another issue.. because ONLINE play on the PS3 has changed gaming on that console.. more people play FPS's then on the PS2 ! )...
My prediction is because the PS3 has a 50 million user deficit under the PS2 - from when GT4 was released and because with online gaming more kids are playing First Person Shooters then they were racing games in the PS2... GT 5 will sell maybe another 2 ... less likely but possibly 3 million TOPS over its lifetime ( thus maybe barely being under -or- barely overtaking the #4 spot - on the list of ALL Time Best Seling GT games ) by which time GT 6 will be released and GT5 sales will stagnate.. Which means the game currently at #5 spot ... will most likely never be anything but the #4, if its able to do that.. with this small userbase.. and with the genre shift to FPS's.. it will be hard.. GT6 will have a better chance because the userbase will be bigger ( unless its held to PS4 ) .. Back in GT4's days FPS's were not that popular - compared to now the #1 Genre ..... FPS's were only popular only on Xbox back in the PS2 das because MS was ahead in online gameing ... XB LIVE already existed back in 2002 and they had Halo...with that reason and PSN theres been such a dramatic shift to First Person Shooters.. FPS's are not the same as they were.. now you put your skills against other kids - back then on PS2 it was strictly all Aritificial Intelligence..