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In a lot of ways the internet has evolved alot since XBox Live was introduced in 2002 and I believe Nintendo could potentially produce a more successful online service than Sony or Microsoft if they design it based on the changes in how people use the internet and attempt to disrupt conventional online services. Essentially, currently online games are (almost) strictly competitive in nature while people's interactions IRL and online are rather diverse; what this means is you could build an online service which was designed around a broader set of interactions and, since it wasn't simply competitive in nature, many people who weren't typically interested in online gameplay might become interested.