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I still think what we'll end up getting is a Hub system. That's the direction the hints and comments point me in. What I picture is this.

At the center of it will be Nintendo's interface. That is where you'll have access to Nintendo's online store, your profile, messaging, Miis, etc. Any smaller company that wants in will sell their digital games through their service if they decided like the Wii Ware/VC/eShop now. Maybe they get their own page to make things easier to navigate.

From there we'll have specific online systems from the big publishers. EA will have their Origin system and Nintendo provides a way to access it. EA controls that and what is sold in it. You might also have Ubisoft's UPlay system. Etc... How this might work well for the console is that Nintendo allows a single account to be connected with all these systems. These companies control their own patching, updates, sales, etc. Friend list for their games might be housed here. Maybe system friend list can be connected or not.

This is what I think Nintendo is working on developing with Ubisoft and EA as those two seem to be working closely with Nintendo. They are also the ones pushing their own digital platforms and don't want Valve to have a monopoly on digital delivery for games. This is the only way I can see a system that isn't centralized like PSN and Xbox Live but isn't an absolute mess that was PS2.