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Parokki said:
All good points, but I think there's one you forgot. While the US has historically given ample support to more than one platform each generation (last gen console shipments: 47M, 16M, 12M), Japan has chosen one home console and ignored the rest (last gen console shipments: 24M, 4M, 500k). I think we can all see that they've made their choice already, and it wasn't Sony.

The PS3 is just barely doing better than the Gamecube in Japan, and it'll almost certainly fail to reach 6 million units during its lifetime. I'd be skeptical of even 5M, but there are still a few big exclusives left, which will probably do better than anything on the Gamecube did.

 This is a very good point and I agree to a certain extent. The problem wih the GC was that there was no big non-Nintendo games that the japanese like on the system besides RE4. PS3 will have RE5, MGS4, GT5, FFXIII, FFvXIII which all sell well in Japan. I don't see the PS3 passing the Wii in Japan (or anywhere else for that matter), but I definitely see a break in tradition where 2 consoles do fairly well in Japan.