As others have said, there's no way Sony's going to reach 15m FY without a price cut. The only big game they currently have for this FY is Uncharted 3. They must be prepared to cut the price by at least $50. I don't think the PS3 will drop to $199 because, honestly, that 15m prediction would be too low.
There is the possibility that they were over-confident in their 2011 line-up and thought they could do 15m without a price cut. I doubt it, it's possible though.
I think MS will wait and see what happens this year before dropping their price. I can see them being very confident in Kinect and deciding to hold off on the price cut for a few months. They'll drop the price of the 360 if the PS3 takes off and/or if Kinect doesn't do as much as they wanted.
If they can stay ahead of Sony and Kinect does well, then I can see them waiting until maybe March/April before making a price drop.
My prediction
- PS3: $249
- X360: Depends on how well Sony & Kinect does.
