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Sean Malstrom said:
I always know when a post of mine hits a bulls-eye when immediately people email me about it or write rebuttals to it. And the post I’m referring to is the one saying a big reason for the drastic price drop is because Nintendo is already 3/4 done with putting out their first party games for the 3DS (and the 3DS STILL isn’t showing signs of change in momentum).

Nowhere did I say the ’3DS is doomed’. Before it launched, I said the ‘Gamecube games will only create Gamecube level sales’ and that the DS/Wii audience would reject the 3d direction. I will say the Virtual Boy or Gamecube philosophy is doomed and any console that follows that philosophy will not sell.

We can only consider games that have a released date or were officially announced. Animal Crossing 3DS hasn’t really been announced or shown any release date. This is why I say it is ‘probable’ that it is coming, but we don’t know anything for sure.

It is probable that a Zelda 3DS game is being made. There has been no announcement or any news. But it doesn’t matter since Zelda doesn’t sell hardware anyway (a stubborn fact that is becoming harder and harder for Nintendo to ignore).

But for those of you upset at that post, let me explain to you how Nintendo shifts its development focus around. The release of the Nintendo home console and handheld console are staggered for a very important reason. Nintendo knows it is responsible for creating momentum for its hardware with first party software. Nintendo shifts its focus on one system at a time.

When Nintendo got done making the software for the DS, it shifted its teams to begin making software for the unreleased Wii. This is why Nintendo games stopped appearing after 2006 for the DS with the exception of Zelda and a couple other games. Nintendo’s focus shifted to building momentum software for the upcoming Wii.

And around 2008, Nintendo focused its software teams to begin making more software for the unreleased 3DS. The entire purpose of First Party software is to create momentum for the hardware. Nothing is creating momentum. Not even Ocarina of Time 3DS. And Nintendo is running out of software.

There is Mario Kart 7 and Super Mario 3dLand. There is also Kid Icarus and Luigi’s Mansion 2 (let me apologize to the talented Next Level Games for Nintendo wasting years of their lives on making a game that won’t sell). I only see Mario Kart 7 as a potential killer app since 3d Mario barely sells hardware.

These games are all Gamecube-esque. And this audience has already purchased a 3DS. For someone with my tastes, there are no games on the system for me. Where is the 2d Mario? Where are the smaller Gameboy-esque type games? All I see are N64-esque type games. And these are the games that caused me to stop buying consoles (and apparently I’m not alone. The DS audience isn’t moving over. Maybe they will with the price cut. We will have to see.).

The point is that Wii U has a release date: 2012. And Nintendo will put out games for the Wii U. These games have to already be in development.

Anyone who says that Nintendo’s output for the 3DS in 2012 will match 2011 is a fool. It just isn’t possible. With the Wii U launching in 2012, much of Nintendo’s development attention will shift to that. The 3DS was expected to already be a hit and third parties should be beginning to make a ton of software. Instead, third parties are abandoning the 3DS. Even EA announced they don’t have interest in it.

Normally, one could argue that 2012 would be a strong year of Nintendo games for 3DS. But seeing the release date of the Wii U in 2012, it just isn’t probable. And Iwata’s steep price drop confirms something is seriously wrong.

If Nintendo had a strong list of first party 2012 3DS software planned, they wouldn’t be cutting the price this much.

You guys aren’t really angry with me. You are more afraid that this is the correct analysis of the situation. I would like someone to explain to me how it is possible for Nintendo to launch the Wii U while putting out the same level of software support for the 3DS as Nintendo did in 2011. Unless Nintendo has secret development teams no one has heard about, there isn’t enough manpower to launch the Wii U and keep the same pace of first party software for the 3DS.




Above: Same philosophy. Same games. Same destiny.



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