Well... considering the fact that S&P (or maybe moody's) said that even if we raise the debt limit we are getting downgraded anyway... i'd say it's a good bet.
To NOT lose our credit rating Congress over the weekend would have to strike a deal that would lead to 4 Trillion dollars in cuts in the next 10 years AND reform medicare AND social security.
I don't see congress getting that done in a weekend.
Anyone saying this is an aritifical crisis doesn't have a damn clue what they're talking about. The Debt ceiling isn't even the big problem.
The reason we might get downgraded is because of how spectacularly the various europeon states have been failing with their huge defcit spending.
Spain's about to be downgraded.
We could pass a bill that would raise the debt ceiling by infinity today, and made no cuts or changes, and we'd still lose our rating.
All the debt ceiling did was force the rating agencies to look this way. It's the spending that's causing them to downgrade.
