How long until PS3 overtakes the 360 in total sales?

[Nidan]

Using the current trend, MS should be on track to move 8M Xbox360 in 08, which equates to an average of 153K/ week or around 120-135K average for a non christmas or holiday week.

• For the PS3 to catch MS in 08 it would have to sell 296K average/week or around 250-260K average for a non christmas or holiday week.
• For the PS3 to catch MS in 09 it would have to sell 225K average/week or around 190-200K average for a non christmas or holiday week.

Looking at this week MS will sell 132K units  which is on target, and sony will sell 145K units which is off an 08 or 09 target and only 13K

Let me put it this way for Sony to catch MS, we need to out sell MS every week.


to beat MS in 08 we need to outsell them weekly by 142K ( or 120-130K/ normal week)

to beat MS in 09 we need to outsell them weekly by 71K ( or 60-65K/ normal week)

to beat MS in 10 we need to outsell them weekly by 47K ( or 39-42K/ normal week)

to beat MS in 11 we need to outsell them weekly by 35K ( or 29-32K/ normal week)

to beat MS in 12 we need to outsell them weekly by 28K ( or 21-25K/ normal week)

to beat MS in 13 we need to outsell them weekly by 23K ( or 19-21K/ normal week)

to beat MS in 14 we need to outsell them weekly by 20K ( or 17-18K/ normal week)

to beat MS in 15 we need to outsell them weekly by 17K ( or 13-17K/ normal week)

 

The chance that Sony will surpass MS in sales in 2008 and 2009 seams remote/low. I will make my prediction for this take over after this weeks numbers are all released, but currently i would track it to around 2015.

Updated: With the current numbers I think that Sony catching MS is a Non issue. If they cant catch them before 2010, then they have lost this generation anyway. The PS3 and Xbox360 market share is not to relevant after 2010 as the manufactures will be looking at their next machine to take market share. 

(BTW,my numbers are just rough and are approximate)