Horhito contacted Roosevelt... and was ignored because what he wasn't offering was unconditional surrender. Which was what was required by the allied chiefs of the axis powers.
Japan was willing to surrender, so long as they got to keep some of the lands they conquered. I
Additionally, when he eventually DID surrender, he was almost ambushed via a military rebellion.
Your right about the supplies... but wrong about the casualties.
Such large numbers were predicted, not so much because the soldiers and families would fight tooth and nail. Though there was a decent amount of that... some japanese soldiers did surrender, but it was MUCH rarer for them to do so, and in generally culture was MUCH more looked down opon. Hell the use of Kamikaze's and the fact that people were still taking part in ritual suicides back it up.
Consider http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Decisive#Operation_Ketsug.C5.8D
Most intersting to his point....
In addition, the Japanese had organized the Patriotic Citizens Fighting Corps—which included all healthy men aged 15–60 and women 17–40, numbering 28 million—to perform combat support, and ultimately combat jobs. Weapons, training, and uniforms were generally lacking: some men were armed with nothing better than muzzle-loading muskets, longbows, or bamboo spears; nevertheless, they were expected to make do with what they had.[25]
One mobilized high school girl, Yukiko Kasai, found herself issued an awl and told, "Even killing one American soldier will do. … You must aim for the abdomen."
Many millions of people were saved only because Japan was forced to surrender and the US came in quick and set up food distribution networks ASAP. `10 million people were seen likely to starve to death before the surrender.
Many people still did starve with as bad as agirculture and food production was in Japan... even US support wasn't helpful.
A long protracted isolation campaign waiting for the elites to be touched by the blockade would of been catastrophic and starved tons of people, 20 million not being outlandish when you consider Japanese food supplies were centralized and largely relied on the same methods of transportation that were used for military materials, aka places that would of been bombed.
He's wrong on some of the facts, but right on the actual conclusion, that of the three options avaliable... the Atomic bomb was by far the one that cost the least amount of civilian deaths, and ended with japan in the best shape post war.
A continuation of the blockade would of caused 10 million + to starve.
An invasion... would of killed hundreds of thousands of soldiers... and caused many more millions to starve.
