Here's my take on the current state of portable gaming:
The DS was a success because it offered great games and features that nobody else was offering at the time. The 3DS offers just as many new features but not everyone is aware of them, yet. All people think it is is just a DS with a cheap 3D effect (but the 3D is actually very good). When it starts pushing new games and not just ports, it will do very well. Problem is, casual games may eat into the market of the 3DS. Nintendo lost some momentum with the 3DS. They need to pump out the next batch of Mario, Mario Kart, and Pokemon to get gamers hooked before the PSV hits or people get too used to playing cheap thrills like Angry Birds.
The PSP was a success because it offered "the Playstation experience" on the go. The PSV is offering more features and such at an affordable price. The problem is, the 3DS has some serious horsepower. If third parties don’t try to push the PSV's capabilities, the games will look almost as good (we're talking Xbox vs PS2) on the 3DS. Sony excels when third parties offer exclusive games. If the 3DS can offer "the Playstation experience" AND "the Nintendo experience" , Sony may be in trouble. They need their big developers working on their big franchises if they want to win this thing. Third parties are loyal to no one.
I once saw "mini-games" like those offered on phones and pads as a threat. I've been playing a lot of games on my phone and playing my PSP less and less. I'm actually getting bored with those bite sized games and hungering for full game experiences, again. I can't be alone in this. I think the PSV and the 3DS will both do very well--just not as good as their predecessors. There will always be a market for the premium experience.
