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mrstickball on 03 July 2011
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Kasz216 said:

Obama.... breaking a campaign promise?

Not that I don't think pot should be legal....

but the whole keeping Fiza thing was a lot worse.


Thing is though, he HASN'T lost his strongest supporters. Cause he knows at the end of the day... no liberal is going to vote for a republican.

Didn't lose homosexuals with his fighting don't ask don't tell because he didn't want a republican group to get the credit and wanted to pass a law before it happened.

Hasn't lost his Jewish voters despite his recent anti Israel positioning.

Hasn't lost the pacifists when he started a war... for like even less reason then bush's stupid reasons.

He could be George Bush or any right wing guy in actions.  He isn't losing votes.  Who's he going to lose them too?


Moderates. The ones that bought into the whole 'hope and change' message. If the economy keeps sliding into the abyss of stagnation, then there is no way that the majority of the independent vote is going to support him. Obama only beat McCain who had about everything going against him by 6%...Which tells me there doesn't need to be a significant swing to get him out of office.

For an example, look at Carter-Reagan. Carter got trashed, and he still had his various voting blocs. Homosexuals, Jews, and paficists - or any of the blocs that will vote for him no matter what may make up 25-30% of the general voting population....Tops. The same can be said for the GOP even if someone like Mitt Romney was nominated.

To me, the two questions that determine the next election is:

  1. Where is unemployment and the general direction of the economy in mid/late 2012?
  2. Who is the GOP nominee?

If #1 is really, really bad, then the GOP can elect a ham sammich (Romney) and they'd win. If #2 is good (not-Romney or Palin) then the GOP has an OK chance even if the economy has recovered somewhat. If #1 and #2 happen, then I'd expect something like a 10-15% margin of victory for the Republicans plus a potential supermajority in the house and senate. That would be interesting. Especially if the Republicans have any balls.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.