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Soleron on 30 June 2011
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zarx said:
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The semiconductor industry is currently worth over 100 billion a year and is forcast to continue it's trend of increasing by ~15% (last year was up 17.9%) even if it slows down it's no likely to stop even if research will move away from CMOS shrinking and more towords alternative meterials (graphane) or even 3D processors.  Even if Intels competitors fall behind, Intel will still be compeled to develop better tech because their business model relies on customers buying a new chip every few years, they may slow down a tiny bit and prices will certainly increase. But advancement won't stop until no advancements can be made.

Besides IBM is still up there with R&D, AMD is barely hanging in there, Nvidia could do well once they move into the SOC space in a bigger way and Samsung and Toshiba are both rising fast, Samsung especially with all the phone and tablet chips they are making now.


OK. I don't have enough information to continue debating on this point. I just don't expect to see graphene or other technologies that aren't just slight CMOS modifications for 15+ years.

Nvidia fabs everything at TSMC, and AMD sold its fabs to Abu Dhabi, but I think IBM and Samsung will withdraw from the foundry business below 22nm and leave just Intel, Globalfoundries and TSMC for 14nm. Then past that I think at least one of GF and TSMC will drop out.