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From what I have seen this game will still be very good. There were obviously changes that were made to make it a bit easier for newcomers. I will admit I like the in depth gameplay more since I am hardcore into games such as Fallout, Elderscrolls series, and Mass Effect. I love the adventure, exploration, and customization. Some games work better when cutting out some things and making it more easy to learn the ropes, and some don't. Here are some examples:
Example 1:
the changes from Mass Effect 1 to Mass Effect 2. Mass Effect 1 had a lot more customization options for weapons and armour. Plus it had more class options. Mass Effect 2 reduced this some, but it was more successful, because the game play was much smoother and the story line flowed much better. I like the customization of Mass Effect 1 more, but overall I like Mass Effect 2 better for its flow and smoothness.

Example 2:
Dragon Age: origins to Dragon Age 2. This is an example where dumbing down the game had serious consequences. But I think the main issues with Dagon Age 2 is that the game was rushed and it had a much more drastic dumbing down then Mass Effect 2 had from Mass Effect 1. Also the gameplay just did not flow well, and I think that was a result of not planning out the game well, and rushed development. In this case it failed.


So overall from the looks of it I think the changes from Oblivion to Skyrim will be more similar to the changes from Mass Effect 1 to Mass Effect 2. Skyrim seems like it has much better game mechanics and game play will flow much smoother. In light of this I think Skyrim will be extremely successful and has a good shot of being the game of the year. Like you I dont like to see the options and customization in a game get less. But if it provides better game mechanics and more enjoyable game play then I fine with it.