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I don't think either will really innovate next gen, just expand on online and digital distribution.

Sony has lost too much on the ps3 to take a big risk. They'll stick to blu-ray and the cell, too much money invested to abandon it already and piss of all developers again with completely new hardware. They're focus will be on 3D unless people give up on by next year.

Same for MS, too much money invested in Kinect to change course already, Kinect 2.0 shipped with the next box?