It will be a tight battle--but it was a very close battle between DS and PSP until mid 2006. It's far too soon to call in the long term, especially given how little we know about the long-term software line ups for either system. Yes, the first 12 months of the battle are going to be tough but we all knew that, didn't we?
I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo cut the 3DS price around the time or in advance of the Vita launch, too. The impact of Mario Kart at the end of the year can't be understated, either--it'll sell consoles not just at Christmas, but for months to come. However big Uncharted is, it won't have that kind of impact or long-term sales effect that Mario Kart will have, and Mario Kart will be followed by another long-term seller in Animal Crossing. Sony have enough content and compelling features to build up a good core base, but I don't see anything that suggests they can move beyond that. Nintendo on the other hand have Super Mario, Kid Icarus, Star Fox and Zelda that will sell anywhere from 3-7 million copies to boost the core base, with Mario Kart and Animal Crossing likely to do in excess of 10 million each, selling into a wider market, and that's before they bring a new "blue ocean" title to market. We may not have seen the next Brain Training yet, but that doesn't mean Nintendo aren't going to bring something like that along. And even if they don't, I still think Nintendo's first party line up is good enough to sell more systems than Sony in the long run. That being said, it will be a very close contest for the first year at least.
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