Vita will be an awesome platform for imports, but i can't really see it competing with 3DS once the big games hit the system. Games like Mario and Pokémon will push the sales further than they are.
And don't forget that Mario and Pokémon are long time sellers (just look at how well they sell). They can sell even without price-cuts. Along with them, Nintendo has a plethora of other franchises that can sell well above 3 mil.
Besides U2 and even with that one, Vita will have to find its own system seller. That alone will give it a hard time finding a way to compete with the 3DS. But there's also the consumers who will not find it as attractive as a smartphone.







