Honestly the ball is more in Nintendo's court to determine whether they win or lose. Vita's there doing largely what the PSP itself was doing early on, which is a solid, albeit conservative strategy. The problem is Nintendo's trying to out-PSP the PSP/Vita with the 3DS, or at least that's how it seems at the moment.
If or when Nintendo gets serious about delivering NES/SNES/DS-type games, then you're going to see some action, but the point is that it's up to Nintendo to decide to do that, otherwise they're just going to have a red-ocean fight on their hands

Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.







