mrstickball said:
archbrix said:
mrstickball said:
Developers do choose the console generation winners. We've seen time and time again that as major IPs are established, developed, promoted and so on, they establish winners and losers among the consoles - each generation, we see the winner based on the games that are produced for a console's library.
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Developer backing is of crucial importance, no doubt. But that's certainly not a foolproof mantra; how do you explain the Wii? It didn't have squat for third party support or cross-platform hit games, yet has handily outsold both of its competitors this generation... not to mention allowed Nintendo to profit far beyond what Sony or Microsoft will accomplish this gen.
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Look at the releases for the console in the first 2-3 years vs. that of the GameCube or other lesser-selling consoles that Nintendo has had. Furthermore, look at the Wii for the past two years of significant declines. I would attribute its initial success due to the internal developers that devoted significant resources (and success) to the system, and the crash due to the lack of resources of 3rd party developers.
Therefore, my belief about the market concerning WiiU is as follows:
- Nintendo will see a regression in terms of innovative new IPs on the WiiU (some successes, but no massive new IPs like Fit, Sports or Play)
- 3rd Parties will not embrace the console with major multi-plats well into the WiiU lifespan (very detrimental to the Wii's success over the past 2 years)
- System specs will make developers fall prey to the higher-specced PS4/X720 which will make said consoles their primary development platforms after launch (likely around 2014)
- If rumors of a 8GB onboard HDD are true, then points #2 and #3 will accellerate significantly, as publishers will see poor tie ratios of DLC on major tentpole IPs which will be arguably the #1 or #2 concern of next-gen revenue consers
- The tablet will be under-utilized by 3rd parties, and be a potential boondoggle in terms of cost to pack in with the WiiU which may hurt the console (e.g. WiiU won't be at the $249 Wii price tag, which was huge for its success against far more expensive consoles)
- WiiU will sell very well for the first 2 years (better than comparables for the X360 and PS3, but worse than the Wii), then see significant declines in 2015 as the PS4/X720 iterations soak up market share from consumers
- Will lead to 35m to 50m LTD sales - highly dependant on what MS/Sony do for deployment, and HDD space of WiiU.
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I disagree. The Wii's recent decline could just as easily be attributed to Nintendo's lack of support as any third party. And third party games weren't responsible for the Wii's early success, Nintendo was. Guitar Hero 3, for example, sold absurdly well on the Wii, but the Wii didn't take off because of Guitar Hero; it was available for all consoles, after all. The Wii took off because many of the people who bought it for Wii Sports were the same people who would be interested in a game like Guitar Hero. You make it sound as if the Wii had massive third party attention at the beginning of it's life and that's what was responsible for its phenomenal sales. Where was Bioshock? GTA 4? Assassin's Creed? Batman? Street Fighter? Resident Evil? Fact is, Nintendo's games and ingenuity (including the cheaper price point) are what drove its sales.
As far as your numbered points, you are certainly entitled to your opinion, but pretty much every prediction you've made is either premature or completely unwarranted. A regression of new IPs? Why? They have an innovative new control interface, and in case you haven't noticed, touch screens are all the rage these days... And you have no idea what the system specs are, whether or not 3rd parties will embrace it or the touch-screen, what the LTD sales will be, or for that matter what Microsoft and Sony have in store for their next consoles.
