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And you also have to consider that the PS4 will be easier to develop for. This means that MS will not be getting the superior multiplats (or at least, not very superior) next gen.

So, in conclusion:

We have no clue of the new IPs next gen, which will likely be pretty important.
We have no clue which IPs this gen will grow into mega frnachises next gen. A generation's most successful IP's are not determined by the successful IP's of last gen (unless your Nintendo). This has happened rarely with GTA, GT, Halo, and MGS. No one last gen could have predicted the huge success of COD, AC, Uncharted, L4D (it's Huge in NA) Gears, LittleBigPlanet, Fable, God of War, etc.