Since the N64, people have bought Nintendo systems to play Nintendo games. People will buy the Wii U when they realize they can't play the next NSMB on Wii. Nintendo's goal is to obviously cater to 3rd parties and get massive support as well. If You have first party Nintendo games, and all major 3rd party games, then why would you need any other console?
Everyone acts like Nintendo needs to cater to the casuals to survive, and yet Sony get's away with making solely hardcore systems (PS1, 2, 3) that sell to the masses (ps1,2) yet Nintendo can't do the same? Why was the PS2 such a success? It had all the third party developers and was easy to develop for. Why did it get all the third party support? probably because it carried over from PS1 where third parties jumped ship from Nintendo because they didn't want to use cartridges. Now that MS is solid competition, that PS2 is market is split between the two with Nintendo picking up all the casual gamers.
If Nintendo truly does get third party support next generation, I see no reason why it won't be successful. They are trying to innovate with the controller to capture the casual audience once again. They are making it more powerful to capture the hardcore audience. The only way to get a dominant system is to have both, and Nintendo might pull it off. IF MS/Sony launch late (2014+) Then Nintendo will have 2 years of being the graphics king. Which could be enough to get a significant hardware lead and established software library.
My guess is that the system will launch with 2 controllers packed in, one wii remote plus+nunchuck plus the new controller. I expect it to be $400, but I don't think price will be an issue. Consoles were $200 in the NES days which is probably more expensive than $400 today. Also, casual consumers shell out way more for an IPad which sells a ton.
If Nintendo solely went after the casual audience again, they would probably be in last place next generation. If they solely went hardcore, they would probably fall behind because they can't compete with Sony/MS's deep pockets. By doing both they can come out ahead. What they are doing now is what needed to be done, and how it plays out? we will have to wait and see.
Either way, I can see a much closer race between all 3 if Sony/MS launch in 2013. If they launch in 2014 or later. I can see Wii U selling 100 million+ with the other two in the 60-70 range as in this generation.
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