Uncharted 3 Sales Predictions

[Jay520]

FW: 1.1 million
LT: 5.1 million

Disadvantages for Uncharted 3

Uncharted 2 competed with MW2, AC2, and Batman when it launched.
Uncharted competes with MW3, AC:R, Batman: AA, Battlefield 3 (which will be bigger than BC2) and Skyrim (which will be bigger than Oblivion) when it launches.

It'll probably get a lower meta than U2. I see it getting a 91. No matter how good it is, it will NOT be as ground breaking as U2.

There is a 97% chance that Uncharted 3 will NOT be the GOTY champ this year. GOTY champs are typically New IPs (LittleBigPlanet, RDR), or surprise sequels (Uncharted 2, Mass Effect 2). This usually the rule. A game has to have freshness either by being a new IP, a surprisingly good sequel, or a long awaited sequel like Skyrim (It's beem 5 years right). So yeah, most of the GOTY awards will probably go to Skyrim or LA Noire or something surprising like Deus Ex. I say U3 has a 3 % chance of being the GOTY champ this year.

Because of the lesser GOTY awards, it won't get that boast around Dec/Jan that U2 got.

I also don't think it'll blow us away visually like Uncharted2. It's going to have some hefty competition from Battlefield 3 and Gears of War 3. Even if it does look better than those two games, it won't be anywhere near the discrepancy that Uncharted 2 had with it's nearest visual challenger (what was it? AC2), espescially considering the introduction of color to the Gears of War series. It will be interesting, no doubt.

It will not release near a $100 price cut like U2.

Advantages for Uncharted 3

Multiplayer. U2's mp was good but wasn't the best on ps3. ND said themselves that they ran out of time with mp for U2. They said they're going after COD this time and they've showed some pretty impressive gameplay so far. They're bringing the cinematics from the sp to the mp and adding new modes like 3 - team deathmatch. Also add in customization. You can tell ND has put a lot of work on the mp this time. This is where that 3% for GOTY Comes in.

I've also seen subtle improve like how the crosshairs separate entirely when shooting unlike in U2 when just the outer lines would disperse.

Solid Snake will make an appearance. This could potential attracted a few hundred-thousand MGS fans

Split Screen. It could impact sales a lot like with RE:5, or not like Killzone 3.


With all that said, the game will be great and I'll most likely enjoy it even more than U2.
First Week: A little over a million units
Lifetime: A Little over five-million units