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9087 said:

Holidays 2013 seems like the obvious Launch date for PS4. With Wii U coming out 2012, Sony will not want them to have too much of the next gen pie. I also garauntee Microsoft will come out sometime in 2013, if not earlier. Sony can't afford to let them get headstarts next time around and will be forced to release a new console in 2013 even though they wish the PS3 could last longer. 

Devs are roughly on a 2 year cycle. Maybe a bit longer considering theyll have to adapt to new hardware. What does that mean? Most devs that released exclusives on PS3 this year, should have enough time to get their next-gen games out for the PS4 Launch window.

 

Either way, they should have more than enough time to get started right now on their next gen games.

 

Sucker Punch - InFamous 3 on PS4? Theyll have 2.5 years of dev time if they want to hit PS4's launch. Or they could release on PS3 and get more sales since it will have a bigger user base. If Sony's smart, they will make sure Sucker Punch's next game is for next gen so that PS4 doesnt get the "no games" stigma attached to it like PS3 did for the first couple of years.

Guerrilla Games - Killzone or New IP. Most likely a new IP. Also, see above. Should be ready just in time for launch.

Media Molecule - The next LittleBigPlanet (or whatever else they have in development) could be a PS4 Launch title. They seem to be pumping out games (4 games in 3 years).

Zipper - if theyre still around. Theyve been disappointing this gen. Wouldnt be surprised if Sony gets rid of them.

Motorstorm Devs (forgot their name). Though I'm sure they'll drop Motorstorm and create a new franchise next gen.

Naughty Dog - Could Uncharted 4 be a PS4 Launch title similar to how Golden Abyss is a Vita Launch title? If not, then expect it holidays 2014. My mind is a bit numb just imaging U4 on PS4 hardware.

EatSleepPlay - Twisted Metal or new IP? I would actually bet theyll be one of those devs that releases PS3 games even after PS4 comes out. Theyre a small studio of only 30 people.

Insomniac - Even though theyre multiplat, I think theyll work something out with Sony for atleast one new exclusive franchise next gen.

Polyphony Digital - Again, if Sony's smart, they'll have Polyphony working on next gen as soon as they have an idea of what the system is going to be like. GT6 should be a PS4 launch title, but knowing them it wont come out til 2016 :(


Bold and underlined: problem is, Wii U is current gen. One needs only to look at the third party offerings, ports of released and about to release HD games. Nintendo only updated its status in this gen.