Is the 360 in trouble?

[Lord N]

rocketpig said:

Lord N said:

rocketpig said:
For those of you that are talking down Microsoft's lack of expansion over the Xbox demographic, I have two points:

- The 360 is tracking ~3.5m over the Xbox at this point in its life, and that gap is only widening
- The 360 is approximately $200 more expensive than the Xbox was at this point in its life (Pro 360 vs. Xbox 2003)

If you can refute that MS is not gaining market with those numbers, feel free to try. I'm dying to hear your reasoning.

That means very little. 3.5 million over the Xbox at the same point in its lifetime is just like adding a few million more onto the lifetime sales of the Xbox or Nintendo 64. They would both still be a distant second, and in Microsoft's case, a distant, unprofitable second.

The 360 is still targeting a very narrow demographic. It's doing moderately well in NA, poorly in Europe, and bon-a-rien in Japan, and at best will end up a distant second, just like its predecessor.

3.5 million more after two years on the market is not an indication of expansion in any way, shape, or form. If it had improved by ten million and was doing well outside of N. America, then you might have a point, but until then, no.

Look at this chart:

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=X360&reg1=All&cons2=XB&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&weeks=156

See any trends there that might make Microsoft happy, doubly so considering that their currect price point is about twice that of its predecessor at this point in its life?

I'm not saying that MS is doing backflips over the 360's performance but few expected the Wii to take off like it has, either. Its demographic is still too small but MS has been pumping out some non-traditional Xbox titles over the past year and they seem to be trying to continue that for the forseeable future (Banjo being a good example). That will help and considering that Sony has been struggling up to this point, MS can't be that unhappy right now and I expect this quarter to be pretty profitable for them.

 Like I said, that increase doesn't mean much. 3.5 million consoles isn't a big deal no matter how you slice it, whether the 360 is more expensive or not.

The fact remains that the 360 will end up at best a distant second(a distant fourth if you count handhelds), as did its predecessor, and what makes this even worse is that the 360 had a year headstart. The only console that it has a chance of outselling this gen is the poorly-performing PS3, so even if it were to accomplish this, it wouldn't be a testament to the 360 doing well as much as it would be a testament to the PS3 doing poorly.

A real example of expansion would be the Sega Genesis over the Master System, or the way the DS and PSP have expanded the handheld market(especially in Japan) with nearly 100 million sold between the two of them in three years.

The 360, on the other hand, will be in the same position as it was last generation(best-case scenario), may as well not even exist outside of N. America, and has only made money for developers while failing to make any for MS.