Decided to give life to this old thread, especially since Sony just announced the NGP/Vita price. $249!! The exact same price as the 3DS. I'm going to have to change my prediction a little.
It seems Sony has bested my price prediction. With the Vita's price point + great 3rd party support + the 3DS not so stellar sales of late, I think Sony can get more of the market than my original prediction of ~50% (I was mainly thinking somewhere around the ballpark of 40%-48%). Now, I'm feeling pretty confident that Sony, if they continue with their Vita support, can actually be the first company to best Nintendo in the handheld market, claiming 60%-70% marketshare. What do you guys think?