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xenogears1234 on 04 June 2011
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HappySqurriel said:
xenogears1234 said:

Thanks homer basically all elections boil down to is money the size and diversity of your base and a message obama has all 3 in spades and all the people running against him don't have enough of those traits to beat him plus an incumbent president is always hard to beat do to experience as president that the other candidates wont have.


The incumbent has an advantage in good economic times, not so much in poor economic times:

No president since Franklin Delano Roosevelt has won re-election when the unemployment rate was higher than 7.2 percent.

Many of the swing states that voted for Obama after supporting Bush are also the states that have suffered the most economically under the Obama presidency. They have already voted for Obama to "fix" their economy once and he failed to do so, and it wasn't even really a focus for Obama, and this provides excellent grounds for a (strong) Republican candidate to spread discontent with Obama leading upto the election.


I was only pointing out incumbence is a factor but not the main factor the reason obama will most likely retain irrelevantly of what unemployment is the caliber of opponent which is not always the most qualified, but the most popular candidate with the most money  which in conservative/republican circles is palin, and if that is the case obama will crush her and your unemployment number estimate wont matter.