I really don't know who will win the primary, and I think it is a very open field at this point in time; and until the primary is decided I can't really say who will win the election.
If I was giving advice to the Republicans I would tell them to choose someone with very strong economic credentials and was socially conservative enough not to offend the religious right; but to not worry too much beyond that because voters won't care.
With the way things are going the unemployment rate on election day will at least be 8% (probably closer to 9%) with U6 unemployment around 15%, oil will be $125 to $175 per barrel, the deficit will be well over $1 Trillion and total federal debt will be around $16 Trillion. This is (essentially) an environment where everyone will be focused on the economy and Obama's weakest position will be the economy; and, as long as the Republican candidate can stay on message, Obama will lose.
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